We will use this page to post information you may find useful as the COVID-19 pandemic spreads across Pennsylvania.

Information for Pennsylvania

Number of New Cases Each Day

The graph below shows the moving 7 day average of new PA COVID-19 cases each day.  (Graph generated July 17.)

One Month Trendlines of Dialy New Cases

These graphs shows the monthy trends in new reported Pennsylvania COVID cases.  The blue line plots the new cases per day for 15 of the most populous counties which had 90% of the cases at one point.  The red line plots the new cases per day for the remaining 52 less populous counties.  The straight lines are trendlines, the best fitting straight line we can draw through the graphs. The paths of the trendlines are not fixed.  We can use the trendlines as an indicator of our progress.

Unfortunately the number of cases is a lagging indicator of the infection rate. If we get too lax in our vigilance, the increase in infections won’t show up as new cases for two to three weeks.  (You can click the image to enlarge in a new window.)

 

 

Total Number of COVID Cases in Pennsylvania

Click the image to see a graph showing the total number of COVID-19 cases in Pennsylvania. At the beginning epidemics grow at an exponential rate. This means that cases double at a fixed rate. The dashed line represents the the exponential growth of cases in the early days of the pandemic. 

If we are effective in our measures to slow the growth of the virus we will see the blue line become more flat over time. When the blue line becomes horizontal, the number of new cases will have stopped.

Projecting PA Progress at Holding Down the Death Rate The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington projects the peak for the rate of increase in COVID-19 deaths for the United States and for individual states. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections. Their original model projected Pennsylvania will hit its peak on April 17.

The model was updated on April 7. The red lines are the maximum daily deaths projected by the models, the green lines are the projected minimums, and the projected means are represented by the black lines. The original model lines are now represented in the same color but by smaller dots to make them less prominent. The new model lines are in the same color but thicker than the modeled values in the previous graphs. Actual PA daily deaths are represented by the solid red line.

IHME projects PA will have sufficient hospital beds to meet our needs.

Timeframe for graph is March 17 to May 19

Animation Showing How the Virus Spread Across Pennsylvania Up to April 14