COVID PA

We will use this page to post information you may find useful as the COVID-19 pandemic spreads across Pennsylvania.

Information for Pennsylvania

Number of New Cases Each Day

Click the graph to the right to see an up to date image representing  the number of new PA COVID-19 cases each day.  The graph will open in a new window.  You can see the 91-DIVOC-states-normalized-Pennsylvaniageneral trend of new cases each day up to a peak at April 9.  Since then there has been an overall trend of decreasing cases, but not a steady decrease from day to day.  The second image helps examine the trend over seven day intervals.   When you open the graph you will also be able to change the graph to display total cases, deaths, testing information, and hospitalizations information.

 

Trendline of New Cases per Day Since April 9

This graph starts on April 9, the date for the highest number of new reported Pennsylvania cases.  The red line plots the actual number of cases.  The black line is a trendline, the best fitting straight line we can draw through the graph. If we follow the trendline, we see it projects when the number of new cases per day will be reach zero.  HOWEVER, the path of the trendline is not fixed. As conditions change, you will see the date where the trendline crosses zero change. We can use the trendline as an indicator of our progress. It will cross zero sooner if we are making better progress and later if we start slipping in our prevention of new cases.

Unfortunately the number of cases is a lagging indicator of the infection rate. If we get too lax in our vigilance, the increase in infections won’t show up as new cases for two to three weeks.  (You can click the image to enlarge in a new window.)
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Total Number of COVID Cases in Pennsylvania

Click the image to see a graph showing the total number of COVID-19 cases in Pennsylvania. At the beginning epidemics grow at an exponential rate. This means that cases double at a fixed rate. The91-DIVOC-PATotalCases dashed line represents the the exponential growth of cases in the early days of the pandemic. 

If we are effective in our measures to slow the growth of the virus we will see the blue line become more flat over time. When the blue line becomes horizontal, the number of new cases will have stopped.


Projecting PA Progress at Holding Down the Death Rate The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington projects the peak for the rate of increase in COVID-19 deaths for the United States and for individual states. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections. Their original model projected Pennsylvania will hit its peak on April 17.

The model was updated on April 7. The red lines are the maximum daily deaths projected by the models, the green lines are the projected minimums, and the projected means are represented by the black lines. The original model lines are now represented in the same color but by smaller dots to make them less prominent. The new model lines are in the same color but thicker than the modeled values in the previous graphs. Actual PA daily deaths are represented by the solid red line.

IHME projects PA will have sufficient hospital beds to meet our needs.

Timeframe for graph is March 17 to May 19

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Animation Showing How the Virus Spread Across Pennsylvania Up to April 14